By Annie Gaus & Gabe Greschler

The Standard got its hands on a new poll on the mayor’s race commissioned by the moderate political group Grow SF. Moral of the story? It is anyone’s ballgame six months out until November … though the results come with a few caveats.

Grow SF’s poll shows Mayor London Breed ahead in the simulated contest—but not by much.

Her 51.4% share of the vote in a ranked-choice matchup is within the poll's margin of error, and many voters remain undecided (28%).

That means former Supervisor Mark Farrell and nonprofit leader Daniel Lurie, who came in second and third respectively, still have a good shot at winning Room 200. The results show Board President Aaron Peskin taking fourth place and Supervisor Ahsha Safaí in fifth.

The poll was conducted by FM3 Research and had a sample size of 412 San Francisco voters contacted between April 29 and May 5—with a margin of error of 4.9%. The poll tried to model a ranked-choice contest by asking respondents to list second and third choices, though many didn’t do so. It also measured candidate favorability, finding Farrell with the highest percentage (10%) of “very favorable” ratings, while Breed had the largest share (34%) of “very unfavorable.”

The data reflects some findings in a larger poll commissioned by the San Francisco Chronicle in February: There are still a fair number of people who don’t know who they will vote for; there’s significant dissatisfaction with Breed; and Safaí remains at the bottom of the pack.

FIREHOUSE VISITS RANKLE UNION: Breed has been making the rounds at city fire stations this spring—and some officials aren’t too pleased about it. Adam Wood, secretary of San Francisco Firefighters Local 798, believes the visits violate the spirit of laws against “captive audience” meetings—where an employer tries to force-feed their political views onto employees during mandatory meetings. (Six states explicitly ban the practice, which is commonly used to discourage labor organizing.)

In the fire union’s newsletter, Wood noted that the National Labor Relations Board issued a memo in 2022 describing “captive meetings” as illegal under the National Labor Relations Act. “So why, in liberal San Francisco, is the mayor stealing a page from the anti-union playbook to corral firefighters?” Wood wrote. “As has been explained to Mayor Breed, she and all other candidates will be invited to address the membership in a free and fair debate.”

In response, the Mayor’s Office said that Breed “regularly prioritizes making time to meet with the city's workforce, including our first responders, to share her thanks and to hear from frontline workers and personnel directly.”

“These meetings are meant to be an opportunity for feedback, and attendance is voluntary. It's important to note that significant initiatives, like many changes proposed in Prop. E, came from spending time and receiving feedback directly from police,” said Breed’s spokesperson Parisa Safarzadeh. “These meetings are intended to be inclusive and engaging, beyond Command Staff and leadership, with the workforce to help inform the city's priorities and efforts.”

In the pipeline

People are protesting with signs that read "Fix Our City" and "Fix SFGH," showing strong emotions.

NURSES STRIKE?: Nurses from San Francisco’s public hospitals are set to vote next week on whether to authorize a strike, as contract negotiations between Service Employees International Union Local 1021 and the city have yet to be sorted out. If the strike goes ahead, it would be the first time since the 1970s that public employees in the city walk off the job.

In recent weeks, the nurses have spoken out against working conditions that include assault and understaffing—and the June 30 contract expiration date is fast approaching for over 2,000 hospital workers. Other employees have already struck tentative deals with the city, which include wage hikes, despite the city’s considerable budget deficit.

ARGENTINE PRESIDENT IN THE BAY: The straitlaced Bay Area Council isn’t normally known for wading into controversy. That’s why some were gobsmacked by its choice of Javier Milei, president of Argentina, as the keynote speaker at its upcoming Pacific Summit in San Jose. The Argentine leader—considered a far-right libertarian who’s enacted severe austerity measures in the fiscally troubled country—is reviled by critics at home and beloved by the likes of Donald Trump and Elon Musk.

“Utterly and unbelievably bizarre,” remarked Gil Duran, a writer and former staffer for Gov. Jerry Brown. Milei, who has pledged to ban abortion and called climate change a “socialist lie,” is set to speak after a fireside chat with Silicon Valley Rep. Anna Eshoo, a discussion with San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and a panel focused on energy sustainability. Asked why Milei was invited, Bay Area Council spokesperson Rufus Jeffris responded that he’s “an elected world leader whose country has economic connections with the Bay Area.”

SF DEMS’ NEW HIRE: A changing of the guard is underway at the San Francisco Democratic Party, with a slew of moderate-leaning members sworn in last month. Bobak Esfandiari, a political super-volunteer and former president of the United Democratic Club, is taking over as the party’s new executive director under the leadership of chair Nancy Tung.

It’s a big, jack-of-all-trades role, spanning administrative tasks and party operations in a critical election year both locally and nationwide. Esfandiari is set to replace Moisés García in the position.

“I look forward to helping make the SF Democratic Party a powerhouse in electing ‘get shit done’ Democrats at every level,” Esfandiari said. “I’m eager to do the work of ensuring that the San Francisco Democratic Party is growing, is effective and is a beacon for the very best of what the Democratic Party can and should be.”