By Annie Gaus, Han Li & Joe Fitzgerald Rodriguez

Warning signs for the U.S. economy are flashing red after President Donald Trump’s erratic trade policies sent markets into turmoil last week. The S&P 500 tumbled into correction Thursday, and consumer confidence fell for the third consecutive month, raising fears of a recession. While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent likened the economic pain to a “detox,” many see the rising pessimism as a spectacular own goal by Trump, whose election spurred hopes on Wall Street of roaring markets and rising growth. Instead, we’re eating chickpea guacamole and canceling vacations.

While there’s no consensus yet that the U.S. will enter a recession, economists believe the risk of a “Trumpcession” is growing. San Francisco wouldn’t be spared. The city is a “creature of the national economy” with substantial exposure to global markets, according to Ted Egan, the city and county’s chief economist. A serious slump could diminish spending and dampen domestic tourism, and hit the city where it really hurts: the tech sector. “I would expect that to be the main channel by which we experience any downturn,” said Egan.

After a brutal year of layoffs, the job market in tech was already tepid — even before recession talk came into play. An economic pullback could stall the city’s fragile Covid recovery, delaying a long-sought “boom loop.” Two small silver linings for downtown: Employment anxiety may drive more workers back to the office, and a weaker U.S. dollar could encourage more international visitors, Egan noted. Buckle up for a bumpy ride — just try not to check your 401(k).

Got tips? Send us an email at powerplay@sfstandard.com or text/call (415) 408-7504.

In the pipeline

A man wearing a mask walks across a street closed off by a gate and a "Road Closed" sign. In the background, people are walking, and mountains are visible.

WECHAT WARS: The fight over the Great Highway took an ugly turn this weekend after vandals defaced a new mural near the road. But tensions had been building before its closure Friday morning — particularly on WeChat, the popular social media app in the Chinese community.

In a 140-person group chat, a heated exchange erupted Wednesday between Sophie Shao, a legislative aide to Supervisor Joel Engardio, and Selena Chu, vice president of the Chinese American Democratic Club. The argument began when Shao blasted a group member for "spreading untrue rumors" about the Great Highway, but it turned personal after Chu suggested Shao was "getting paid to create division in the Chinese community."

Shao later apologized for her tone and demanded an apology in return. But on Friday night, Chu — a WeChat power user actively promoting the recall — shared details of their conversation across more than a dozen WeChat groups, urging the Chinese community to be wary of Shao. The Chinese American Democratic Club, which endorsed Engardio in 2022, voted to withdraw its support for the supervisor last week.

D.C. OR BUST: Mayor Daniel Lurie has trumpeted an important mission handed to a delegation of local officials — including City Attorney David Chiu, San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency Director Julie Kirschbaum, Mayor’s Office Manager of State and Federal Affairs Eileen Mariano, and San Francisco Office of Community Investment Executive Director Thor Kaslofsky — who joined the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce for its annual trip to Washington, D.C.

Speaking Tuesday to the Board of Supervisors, Lurie said he sent the group “to lobby our federal government for critical resources,” such as Federal Emergency Management Agency reimbursements.

Considering Republicans hold the purse strings in Washington right now, one might imagine that’s where the delegation would focus its efforts. Not so much: At least as of Friday, the group had met with Democratic offices from its own backyard: Reps. Nancy Pelosi, Sam Liccardo, and Lateefah Simon, Sen. Adam Schiff, and others. Visiting Democrats in D.C. is an annual tradition.

Power Play is told the mayor’s office, including Mariano, has been making near-constant calls on FEMA reimbursements, which threaten to blow a $267 million hole in the budget. The issue was a key conversation piece with Schiff’s office, among others. As Power Play reported last week, Lurie isn’t optimistic about those funds coming through.

The contingent were also slated to meet with the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, which does include a bevy of Republicans — but no word on if they met only with the committee’s Democratic wing.

BUCK-BUSTING BONANZA: We already knew last year’s mayor’s race was the most expensive on record, thanks to Lurie’s family fortune. It also threw the city’s public financing program into a tizzy, a new SF Ethics Commission report shows.

Every time Lurie dropped another chunk of cash into his campaign, the commission had to raise the public financing ceiling, bringing the total public funds spent to $8.8 million. The mayor’s race illustrated “how a candidate with significantly more funds than other candidates in the same race renders [candidate spending ceilings] irrelevant,” staffers wrote.

One solution might be to do away with public financing ceilings altogether, meaning the commission won’t need to legally authorize candidates to spend more every time a wealthy candidate drops cash. Total spending by mayor and supervisor candidates, plus third parties, was $45.7 million — “the highest ever,” according to the commission.

HOW MUCH AGAIN?: City department heads have been whistling an innocent tune after The Standard revealed that more than a few agencies blew off a directive to make 15% cuts to their budgets. Lurie was none too happy, we’re told.

Insiders tell us Lurie opened a recent 9 a.m. “large agency meeting” by chastising the assembled leaders. (Lest we forget, the mayor’s office also appears to be avoiding budget cuts). He then reportedly said budget staff will meet with departments individually, which they interpreted as a consequence. The message: If you didn’t make the cuts, we will.

Still, that gave some of our sources a chuckle. Why? Meeting with departments individually to hash out budgets is hardly a consequence; it’s something that happens every year.