Like many of the predictions we’ve presented to you this election season, the latest polling should be taken with caution: There are still a decent number of undecided voters, and margins of error could change, well, everything. 

With that said, the moderate-leaning political group GrowSF on Wednesday released its latest polling figures on the mayor’s race, showing a nail-biter.

In the group’s ranked-choice vote simulation, Mayor London Breed came out on top by a sliver over nonprofit founder Daniel Lurie. Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin came in third, while former Supervisor Mark Farrell placed fourth. The poll was conducted by FM3 Research and has a sample size of 415 voters, with a margin of error of 4.9%.

In comparison with GrowSF’s previous polling, there are a few takeaways: Peskin is trailing, just as he has in other polls in recent months. However, his chances might not be as bleak as they seem: In round two of ranked-choice voting, he was tied with Lurie at 21% for second place, though he ends up being eliminated after round three by a wide margin of 11%. 

The number of undecided voters dropped from GrowSF’s July poll, from 18% to 11%, meaning this could be an inch closer to the reality of how the election plays out. Finally, Breed’s favorability is on an upward trend from a low point in May, while Farrell’s unfavorability jumped this month. Perhaps all that money Lurie is spending attacking Farrell as corrupt is working after all. 

COME HANG WITH US! Who’s leading in the mayor’s race — and what does it mean for San Francisco? The Power Play crew will host a lively virtual discussion and Q&A on the state of the race Friday, Oct. 4, at noon. We’ll be joined by SF State professor Jason McDaniel, who will help us break down the role of ranked-choice voting this November. Register here for this free event. Bring your questions — we’ll see you there!

CANDIDATES GET GRILLED: With weeks to go until Election Day, the four leading candidates for mayor stopped by ABC7 for sit-down interviews with anchor Reggie Aqui, The Standard’s Annie Gaus, and journalist Kara Swisher. 

Breed, who’s fighting for her job, argued that San Francisco is on the upswing. Peskin, a longtime adversary of tech, wants to create an “International Center for Tech Diplomacy” downtown. Farrell accused Breed of allowing encampments to “fester,” saying he would have cleared them long ago. And Lurie, who’s loaded enough to throw $6 million at his own campaign, says he can still relate to us normies. Check out the full interviews here or on ABC7. 

SF’S BREE(D)XIT MOMENT?: Conservative commentator and progressive critic Richie Greenberg has made his (small) foray into the mayor’s race by creating an anti-Breed PAC. Greenberg said the group, Citizens Opposing Re-Election of Mayor London Breed 2024, is set to raise tens of thousands of dollars in an attempt to knock the sitting city leader off her perch and allow either Lurie or Farrell — who have both won fans among conservatives — to take her place. 

Greenberg admitted the PAC won’t likely make a huge splash in the November race, calling it “small potatoes,” but said it’s  important to oust a mayor he describes as knee-deep in corruption scandals and an economic crisis. “The pushback against Breed is OK,  but it is incomplete,” said Greenberg. “We know that there are things she should be hit on that are crucial.”
The most impressive part of the effort? The name of its website: breexit.com. 

“The local MAGA chapter apparently figured out how to build a website in their spare time, when they’re not storming the Capitol or worrying about people eating their cats and dogs,” wrote Joe Arellano, a spokesperson for Breed’s campaign, when asked about Greenberg’s PAC.

THAT MUSKY STENCH: Since Elon Musk’s takeover, X has painfully, precipitously dropped in value, culminating in him carting off the company (and, presumably, his giant neon sign) to Texas. Musk’s noisy exit from San Francisco didn’t stop him from weighing in on our mayoral race, however. The world’s richest man seemingly backs Farrellfirst, Breed second, and Lurie  third. At least, that’s what one can infer from his retweet of a San Francisco voter guide by the publication Pirate Wires. 

“This is great,” Musk wrote, retweeting the guide to his 200 million followers. 

Pirate Wires is the brainchild of Mike Solana of Founders Fund, the venture capital firm founded by Peter Thiel. It’s a little odd to see Pirate Wires, and Musk, backing Democrats, given Musk’s love of former President Donald Trump and Thiel’s Republican megadonor background. Pirate Wires also wrote adamantly against Peskin’s mayoral candidacy. 

Peskin was unfazed. “The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree, especially poison apples!” he wrote to Power Play. “Toxic Elon Musk has provided a helpful reminder of exactly the people NOT to vote for if you care about uplifting San Francisco, not tearing it down.”

MANDELMAN'S NEXT MOVE: The Board of Supervisors will have a new president after the November election, and Rafael Mandelman appears to be a front-runner: He’s the most senior member on the board and has ties to both progressives and moderates. In a phone interview, Mandelman said it's premature to discuss because no one knows what the board will look like after November, when six seats are up for grabs. But, he added, "every member wants to be president, and you just need to convince the other five."

Elected to the board in June 2018, Mandelman has opened a state Senate campaign account to run for Scott Wiener's seat, with about $40,000 cash. But everyone is waiting to see what happens with  a third person: Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, who’s been mum on her retirement plans. Three potential scenarios will affect Wiener's move, which will in turn affect Mandelman: Pelosi could resign mid-term before 2026, stay for the full term before leaving, or run for reelection in 2026. Each of these possibilities would set off a chain reaction in local politics.

Mandelman is getting ready. On Friday, he posted on Facebook that he's learning Cantonese, an apparent move to boost his chances with Chinese voters for a citywide campaign. He has also been active in Chinatown events. "Anybody from any district in SF should try to know some Chinese," he said.

HIGHWAY TO HELL: The war over the Great Highway is tearing the sleepy Sunset neighborhood apart. Divisions along lines of class, race, and age have made Prop. K the nastiest political fight of the season — marked by recall threats, screaming matches, and even arson rumors. 

NIGHTMARE NO MORE: The L Taraval reopened, ending a long nightmare of construction and crushing red tape for merchants along the corridor. “All of a sudden, now it’s everybody,” Su Hlaing, a server at Tennessee Grill, said Monday of the returning crowds. Hlaing said the Parkside institution has been bustling since Saturday.
DOWNTOWN HOUSING: San Francisco developer and architect Richard Hannum announced to a gathering of city officials and real estate honchos that, after months of frustration, his firm had secured the funding and approvals needed for the first office-to-housing conversion since the pandemic. Officials have pinned their hopes on downtown housing, but it’s been difficult to manifest.